INTELLIGENCE POLICY AND ORGANIZATION

PUAF 698N, Spring 2006

Tuesday 4:15- 6:45pm, Room 1207 Van Munching Hall

 

Prof. William Lahneman

4134 Van Munching Hall

(301) 405-7602

Lahneman@umd.edu

Office Hours: Tuesday 2-4pm or by appointment

 

 

 

Course Description

 

The course examines the principal roles of intelligence in national policy formulation, in the provision of strategic and tactical warning, in providing support for military operations, and in covert action.  Emphasis is placed on the problems inherent in conducting intelligence in a democracy and on the ethical considerations associated with providing high quality intelligence analysis.

 

The course describes how the structure of the U.S. intelligence community has evolved since World War II, the various problems and scandals that have surfaced, and the actions that have been taken to correct deficiencies and improve performance.  Special attention is given to the findings of the 9/11 Commission Report, the Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, and the Report to the President of the United States by the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.  (31 March 2005).

 

The final part of the course focuses on leadership and management issues currently facing the intelligence community.  The intelligence cycle is investigated against the backdrop of emerging tools, trends and threats, including advances in information technology, the open source revolution, the ongoing process of globalization, transnational terrorism, and U.S. homeland security requirements.  Development of policy recommendations for improving the education, recruitment, training, and retention of analysts is emphasized, including changes to management practices and organizational structure.

 

 

Course Design

 

The course is designed to educate the student about intelligence and the U.S. intelligence community through appropriate reading assignments, lectures, class discussions, guest speakers, and class assignments requiring the use of analytic techniques.

 

Reading Assignments:  The course will employ two texts:

 

  1. Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy 3rd ed. (Washington, D.C.:  CQ Press, 2006)

 

  1. Loch K. Johnson & James J. Wirtz, Strategic Intelligence:  Windows Into a Secret World – An Anthology (Los Angeles, CA: Roxbury Publishing Company, 2004)

 

The texts have been supplemented by readings from journals, conference proceedings, commission reports, and other sources.  When not available via the Internet, electronic copies of readings will be posted on Blackboard.

 

Due to their length, students are encouraged to start reading the following works early in the course in order to complete them by the assigned dates.

 

 

 

  • Report to the President of the United States, The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (31 March 2005) (http://www.wmd.gov/report/)

 

 

 

 

 

Additionally, students will read and analyze one of the following books as part of their team project (explained below).

 

  • Rob Johnson, Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2005)

 

  • Melissa Boyle Mahle, Denial and Deception: An Insider’s View of the CIA From Iran-Contra to 9/11 (2004)

 

  • Richard A. Posner, Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11 (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2005).

 

  • Stansfield Turner, Burn Before Reading: Presidents, CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence (Hyperion,2005).

 

Midterm and Final Exams:  There will be two written exams. The first exam will be an in-class, closed book exam designed to test basic knowledge about intelligence and the U.S intelligence community.  The final exam will be an open book, take home exam in the form of an analytic report.

 

Team Project:  Since intelligence analysis is becoming increasingly dependent on interdisciplinary knowledge sharing and creation, students will be divided into four teams and assigned an analytic project.  Each team will produce a written report on their topic and will brief their project’s findings to the class.  Students on a team will be assigned the same grade for their group presentation, but each student will be graded separately on their portion of the written report.

 

Team Project Analyses.  Students will be designated to analyze and comment on another team project’s findings immediately following each team’s presentation.  Discussants will focus on identifying weak points in team analyses.

 

 

Grading Criteria

 

Midterm Exam                                                              25%

Team Project Report                                                                25%

Team Project Presentation                                                        10%

Team Project Discussant Presentation                             5%

Final Exam                                                                               25%

Class Participation                                                                    10%

 

 

Schedule of Classes and Reading Assignments

 

31 January                  Course Overview and Introduction

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapter 1

National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America: Transformation Through Integration and Innovation, October 2005 (http://www.dni.gov/NISOctober2005.pdf).

 

 

Part 1.  The Intelligence Enterprise

 

7 February                  The U.S. Intelligence Enterprise

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 3 & 15

A Consumer’s Guide to Intelligence (Washington, D.C.:  Office of Public Affairs, Central Intelligence Agency)

Factbook on Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency publication (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/facttell/textonly.htm)

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Global Trends 2015:  A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts, National Intelligence Council, December 2000 http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf

 

 

14 February                I.  Film:  The Man Who Knew

                                    II.  Guest Speaker

 

 

21 February                Intelligence Analysis and the Intelligence Cycle

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 4, 5, 6, 7, & 8

Johnson & Wirtz 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, & 17

 

“Analysis of the Week”

The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS:  Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China, Intelligence Community Assessment, National Intelligence Council, September 2002. http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/HIVAIDS/ICA_HIVAIDS20092302.pdf

 

 

28 February                Intelligence and Democracy

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 10 & 13

Johnson & Wirtz 22, 27, 28, 29, 30, & 35

William J. Lahneman, “Problems of U.S. Intelligence Performance Prior to 9/11 and Attempts at Reform,” in Thomas Bruneau, Ed., Intelligence and Democracy:  A Work in Progress (Austin, TX:  University of Texas Press, forthcoming 2006).

Timothy Gulden, “The Future of Privacy,” conference proceedings from the Project on Science, Technology, And Public Policy, CISSM, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, October 30, 2003

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Global Humanitarian Emergencies:  Trends and Projections, 1999-2000, National Intelligence Council, August 1999.

 

 

Part 2.  History of the U.S. Intelligence Community

 

7 March                      I.  Midterm Exam

II.  History of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Part 1.

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 2 & 11

Johnson & Wirtz 1 & 2

Factbook on Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency publication (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/facttell/textonly.htm), read “The Genesis of the CIA,” “Key Events in CIA’s History,” and “An Overview of American Intelligence Until World War II.”

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Tracking the Dragon:  National Intelligence Estimates on China During the Era of Mao, 1948-1976 , National Intelligence Council, October 2004, Introduction & pp. 69-80. http://www.cia.gov/nic/foia_china_intro_eng.html

 

 

14 March                    History of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Part 2.

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapter 12 and Appendix 2

Johnson & Wirtz 4, 5, 6, 7, & 9

 

“Analysis of the Week”

NSC-68 (http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsc-hst/nsc-68.htm)

 

 

21 March                    Spring Break – no class

 

 

28 March                    Recent “Intelligence Failures”

 

Reading Assignment:

Johnson & Wirtz 3

The 9/11 Commission Report:  Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (New York:  W. W. Norton & Co., 2004) (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/)

Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/iraq.html)

Report to the President of the United States, The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.  (31 March 2005) (http://www.wmd.gov/report/)

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Intelligence and Analysis on Iraq:  Issues for the Intelligence Community (29 July 2004)  Kerr Group Reports

 

 

Part 3.  Intelligence Analysis and Production

 

4 April             Principles of Analytic Tradecraft

 

Reading Assignment:

Jack Davis, “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  Strategic Warning,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/1 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no1.html

Jack Davis, “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  DI Analytic Priorities,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/3 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no3.html

Wilhelm Agrell, “When Everything Is Intelligence – Nothing Is Intelligence,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/4 (October 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no4.htm

Jack Davis, “Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/5 (November 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no5.htm

Jack Davis, “Strategic Warning:  If Surprise Is Inevitable, What Role for Analysts?” Kent Center Occasional Papers 2/1 (January 2003) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol2no1.htm

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Based on Consultations With Nongovernment Experts Around the World, National Intelligence Council, December 2004. http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf

 

 

11 April                       I.  The Client-Analyst Relationship.

                                    II.  Guest Speakers

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapter 9

Johnson & Wirtz 10, 11 & 18

Jack Davis, “Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations:  Opinions, Facts, and Evidence,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 2/2 (January 2003)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol2no2.htm

Jack Davis, “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  Analysts and the Policymaking Process,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/2 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no2.html

Intelligence and Policy:  The Evolving Relationship, Roundtable Report, Center for the Study of Intelligence, June 2004 http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/Roundtable_june2004/IntelandPolicyRelationship_Internet.pdf

 

 

Part 4.  The Future of Intelligence Analysis

 

18 April                       Intelligence Reform Issues

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapter 14

Johnson & Wirtz 19 & 26

William J. Lahneman, ed.  The Future of Intelligence Analysis.  A Report for the Assistant Director of National Intelligence for Education and Training (27 January 2006).  Available at www.cissm.umd.edu.

Richard A. Best, Jr., The National Intelligence Director and Intelligence Analysis, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, September 30, 2004. http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RS21948.pdf

Richard A. Best, Jr.  Intelligence Issues for Congress.  (15 September 2005)  CRS Issue Brief for Congress

Gregory F. Treverton, RAND Occasional Paper:  The Next Steps in Reshaping Intelligence (15 October 2005). (http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP152/index.html)

 

“Analysis of the Week”

Richard K. Betts, “The New Politics of Intelligence:  Will Reforms Work This Time?” Foreign Affairs 83/3 (May/June 2004):  2-8. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501facomment83301/richard-k-betts/the-new-politics-of-intelligence-will-reforms-work-this-time.html

 

 

25 April                       Intelligence for Homeland Security:  Challenges and Prospects

 

NOTE:  TEAM PROJECT REPORT DUE AT BEGINNING OF CLASS

 

Reading Assignment:

Summary of Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, United States Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, December 6, 2004. http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2004_rpt/s2845-summ.pdf

Protecting America’s Freedom in the Information Age, A Report of the Markle Foundation Task Force (October 2002) (http://www.markle.org/markle_programs/policy_for_a_networked_society/national_security/projects/taskforce_national_security.php#report2)

 

“Analysis of the Week”

William J. Lahneman, “Knowledge Sharing in the Intelligence Community Since 9/11,”  International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17/4 (Winter 2004-2005): 614-633.

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

2 May             Team Project Presentations

 

Team 1.  Rob Johnson, Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2005)

 

Team 2.  Melissa Boyle Mahle, Denial and Deception: An Insider’s View of the CIA From Iran-Contra to 9/11 (2004)

 

Team 3.  Richard A. Posner, Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11 (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2005).

 

Team 4.  Stansfield Turner, Burn Before Reading: Presidents, CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence (Hyperion,2005).

 

 

9 May                         An Impending Revolution in Intelligence Affairs?

 

Reading Assignment:

Deborah G. Barger, “It Is Time to Transform, Not Reform, U.S. Intelligence,” SAIS Review XXIV no. 1 (Winter-Spring 2004): 23-31. http://www.saisreview.org/PDF/24.1barger.pdf

William J. Lahneman, “Testing the Proposition that a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is Occurring,”  paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego, CA, 22-25 March 2006.

William J. Lahneman, “Outsourcing the IC’s Stovepipes?” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 16/4 (Winter 2003-2004): 573-593.

Mark M. Lowenthal, “The Role of Intelligence in the United States Today,” remarks at a Potomac Institute Seminar on the Revolution in Intelligence Affairs:  Transforming Intelligence for Emerging Challenges, 15 September 2003 (http://www.intelligence.gov/0-role_intell.shtml)

William Nolte, “Keeping Pace With the Revolution in Intelligence Affairs,” Studies in Intelligence, 48/1 (2004): 1-10. http://www.cia.gov/csi/studies/vol48no1/article01.html

 

 

TBD                            Final Exam